What is KP in aurora forecast?

There is a simple index called Kp, a number from 0 to 9, which is used to refer to geomagnetic activity for a 3-hour period. Another indication of geomagnetic activity is the NOAA POES Auroral Activity Level, which is a number from 1 to 10.

What is the best KP to see Northern Lights?

5
If the Kp is 5 or greater, the better your chances of seeing an aurora. You can check out the SWPC Estimated Planetary Kp graph to see what has been happening during the past few days. The red bars indicate a Kp higher than 4, which makes your odds of seeing an aurora greater.

Is 2021 a good year to see Northern Lights?

“The outlook is favorable as we go forward,” Steenburgh said of 2021. Solar forecasters are seeing upticks in active regions as well as in the coronal mass ejections of charged particles that are key to lighting up the northern lights.

What does KP 9 mean?

extreme geomagnetic storming
The Kp-index is the global geomagnetic activity index that is based on 3-hour measurements from ground-based magnetometers around the world. The Kp-index ranges from 0 to 9 where a value of 0 means that there is very little geomagnetic activity and a value of 9 means extreme geomagnetic storming.

What is a KP value?

The Kp-index describes the disturbance of the Earth’s magnetic field caused by the solar wind. The faster the solar wind blows, the greater the turbulence. The index ranges from 0, for low activity, to 9, which means that an intense geomagnetic storm is under way.

What does a KP of 4 mean?

Kp 4 – Active – Bright, constant and dynamic northern lights visible. More colours start to appear. Kp 5 – Minor storm – Bright, constant and colourful aurora display, red and purple colours appear.

What KP to see southern lights?

We know that Tasmania stretches between latitudes 40-44 degrees south, with Hobart, Australia’s southernmost capital city, at 42 degrees south. With this in mind, a Kp5 or above is recommended for the best chance of an aurora being visible, with the naked eye. The further south you are the better chance you have.

What month is best for Northern Lights?

But here’s the good news: The time is right to get a glimpse of the aurora borealis. Thanks to longer hours of darkness and clear night skies, December through March is usually the best time to observe this elusive natural phenomenon (though you can sometimes see the northern lights starting as early as August).

Where are the auroras in the Kp index?

Kp 0 – Quiet – Aurora oval mostly to the north of Iceland. Faint aurorae visible in photographs, low in the northern sky Kp 3 – Unsettled – Bright auroras visible at zenith. Pale green colour more obvious Kp 4 – Active – Bright, constant and dynamic northern lights visible.

How is the Aurora Australis forecasted in real time?

Hourly Aurora Forecast. Using real-time solar wind data from Nasa’s ACE spacecraft, matched with data obtained from a network of magnetometers located worldwide, we are able to forecast, with reasonable accuracy, how the Southern Lights will behave up to one hour in advance. The image shows estimated aurora activity now.

How are we able to predict the Aurora?

Using real-time solar wind data from Nasa’s ACE spacecraft, matched with data obtained from a network of magnetometers located worldwide, we are able to forecast, with reasonable accuracy, how the Southern Lights will behave up to one hour in advance. The image shows estimated aurora activity now.

Is the Kp index a good predictor of the Northern Lights?

It’s important to note that the Kp-index does not definitively predict the strength of the Northern Lights. It nevertheless provides a good idea of what to expect. Always take a Kp-index forecast with a pinch of salt.